from ARNOLD MULENGA in Lusaka, Zambia
Zambia Bureau
LUSAKA, (CAJ News) – RELATIONS between Zambia’s ruling party and several Western missions have entered a turbulent phase, with accusations of foreign interference surfacing just a year before the country’s high-stakes 2026 general elections.
The controversy underscores Zambia’s growing entanglement in global geopolitical rivalries while exposing sharpening divisions between the government, opposition parties, and civil society.
UPND Points Finger at Western Envoys
The United Party for National Development (UPND), which has governed since President Hakainde Hichilema’s landmark victory in 2021, claims that certain Western diplomats are covertly funding media outlets to discredit the government and undermine Zambia’s international investment profile.
Mark Simuuwe, UPND spokesperson, alleged that some embassies had channelled as much as US\$1 million to private media houses to run negative coverage.
“We will use politics to sort out some envoys because we have information about this funding scheme,” Simuuwe declared, singling out the United States Ambassador to Zambia, Michael Gonzales, whose recent remarks he labelled “undiplomatic.”
The accusations mark the latest escalation in a diplomatic row that began earlier this year when the US Embassy issued a health alert for American citizens in Zambia after a toxic spill at Sino Metals, a Chinese-owned copper processor in the Copperbelt. The embassy directed its staff to withdraw from Kitwe and surrounding areas, citing health and safety concerns.
Although Sino Metals admitted responsibility for the disaster, Lusaka perceived the embassy’s actions as politically loaded, reflecting Washington’s growing unease over Zambia’s warming relations with Beijing.
Zambia’s Balancing Act Between Washington and Beijing
The dispute cannot be separated from Zambia’s strategic importance in the US–China rivalry.
With Africa becoming a new frontier for influence, Zambia sits at the heart of the contest, owing to its vast copper and cobalt reserves, minerals critical for the global clean energy transition.
President Hichilema has cultivated strong ties with China, Zambia’s largest bilateral creditor and a long-term investor in its mining sector. At the same time, he has sought to deepen cooperation with the US on debt restructuring and governance reforms.
However, UPND officials accuse Washington of double standards, alleging that criticism of Lusaka’s governance record is tied less to democratic principles and more to strategic competition with Beijing.
“We will not allow Zambia to become a battleground for geopolitics,” Simuuwe said, insisting that Hichilema’s government remains committed to sovereignty and independent policy choices.
Opposition Exploits the Diplomatic Row
While the ruling party is trading barbs with foreign envoys, Zambia’s opposition is capitalising on the fallout.
The Patriotic Front (PF)—the party ousted in 2021—recently sent a delegation to the US Embassy, where it raised concerns over what it called the erosion of democratic space under Hichilema.
The PF, now repositioning itself under the broader Tonse Alliance coalition, argues that the ruling party is increasingly intolerant of dissent and is weaponising state institutions to weaken rivals.
“The Zambian people still love the PF, and the UPND is threatened by our presence,” said Celestine Mambula Mukandila, chairperson of Tonse Youth.
Analysts note that the opposition’s outreach to Western embassies reflects a wider strategy to cast UPND as authoritarian while courting international legitimacy ahead of 2026.
A Contest Over Legitimacy
The war of words has extended into Zambia’s domestic politics. Simuuwe maintains that President Hichilema has “no serious challenger” in 2026, pointing to UPND’s victories in recent by-elections. He dismissed the opposition as “dying” and “without a manifesto.”
But political observers warn against complacency.
“Kenneth Kaunda felt the same in 1991, and so did the PF in 2021—but the results shocked them,” said analyst Kaluwe Mubita, warning UPND that public discontent can shift dynamics rapidly.
Fellow commentator Rhobam Kamfwa Ng’andwe echoed this caution: “The biggest opposition UPND has are Zambians themselves.”
Discontent has been simmering over the cost of living, youth unemployment, and slow progress on economic reforms despite the administration’s efforts at debt restructuring.
Student Endorsements and Campaign Optics
As tensions mount, President Hichilema has turned to grassroots engagement. This week, he hosted hundreds of students from the University of Zambia on the lawns of State House in Lusaka.
According to UPND, student leaders led by Kabaso Mwanto pledged their collective support for Hichilema’s re-election bid, citing his commitment to education reforms.
“The student community collectively endorsed President Hichilema for the 2026 General Election,” a statement from UPND read.
Critics, however, dismissed the event as a campaign gimmick, underscoring how pre-election activities are already in full swing despite official campaigning not yet commencing.
Historical and Regional Context
Foreign influence in Zambian politics is not new. During the Cold War, Lusaka frequently found itself navigating tensions between the West and the Eastern bloc, balancing economic dependence on aid with a strong anti-colonial and non-aligned stance under Kaunda.
Today, Zambia’s democratic trajectory remains under close international scrutiny. Civil society groups have urged the government to maintain transparency, warning that attempts to paint diplomatic criticism as foreign meddling could undermine freedom of expression and media independence.
Regionally, Zambia’s situation mirrors broader patterns. Across Africa, governments facing elections have accused foreign powers of interference, often as a means of consolidating domestic support. Similar narratives have played out in Zimbabwe, Uganda, and Tanzania, where ruling parties framed Western envoys as hostile actors aligned with opposition parties.
Looking Ahead to 2026
With less than a year before the polls, Zambia is entering a politically charged season where foreign relations, economic recovery, and democratic governance will all converge.
Hichilema’s administration has made progress on restructuring Zambia’s US\$18 billion external debt, securing relief from official creditors including China and Western lenders. Yet, ordinary citizens remain anxious over inflation, fuel costs, and joblessness.
Opposition forces, though fragmented, hope to ride this discontent by presenting a united front under the Tonse Alliance banner. Whether this coalition can overcome internal rivalries and mount a credible challenge remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, the ruling party’s growing confrontation with foreign envoys raises the risk of diplomatic isolation, particularly if relations with Western donors deteriorate further. Given Zambia’s heavy reliance on external financing for its budget and development projects, such isolation could prove costly.
Conclusion
The current standoff between UPND, the opposition, and Western embassies highlights the fragile interplay of domestic politics and international geopolitics in Zambia.
What began as a dispute over diplomatic statements and funding allegations has evolved into a broader narrative about sovereignty, legitimacy, and electoral competitiveness.
As Zambia heads toward its 2026 elections, the government faces a delicate balancing act: defending national sovereignty while ensuring that accusations of foreign meddling do not erode public trust, scare off investors, or deepen political polarisation.
For now, one thing is clear: Zambia’s path to the polls is unlikely to be smooth. The political theatre unfolding in Lusaka is not just about who wins the next election—it is also about how Zambia positions itself in a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical rivalries and digital-era scrutiny.
– CAJ News