ANALYSIS: Predictions for SA election after 29th May 2024


South Africa faces mammoth task of forming a new coalition or government of national unity

JOHANNESBURG, (CAJ News) – DEMOCRACY is good. Politicians are on their toes to woe voters and promise the best future for the South African country.

This competition is often hostile, but if the institutions in the country are robust and steady democracy triumphs.

In South Africa democratic institutions are firming, after the attack during the Presidency of President Jacob Zuma. Many political parties and independent candidates are vying for positions in parliament, municipalities and at local level.

What are the expected results? My forecast for the results are as follows.
The African National Congress (ANC) – 45%, Democratic Alliance (DA) – 15%, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – 20%, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) – 10%, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) – 3%, Action SA – 3% and the rest collectively at 4%.

I am giving the ANC 45% to 50% of the votes because competing political parties did not focus on social grants.

Black people think, and feel that social grants money comes from the ANC government, and they want to safeguard their continued payments.

According to latest statistics issued on 23 May 2024, twenty three percent (23%) of South Africans depend on social grants. That translates to 14,25 million citizens.

The actual number could be as high as 21 million. If half of grant earners vote for the ANC, then about 7 to 10 million votes are in the bag for the ANC.

The voter roll has 27 million voters. A 75% turnout will be 20 million voters. The ANC will get 50%, and discounting to 45% because ANC leaders were found with their fingers in the purse, and corruption featured strongly in the campaigns, as well as the emergency of the MK party.

The MK party can be trusted for the social grants and will eat into the ANC voter’s base. If all competing parties focused on grant earners explaining the future such grants, then the ANC would fall, fail to reach majority rule or would not form the government.

Without the MK Party, the ANC would still regain the majority, because other political parties were merely attacking the ANC and did not say how the poor would get monthly income, but merely promised jobs.

Promises for jobs have never materialized. The EFF promised increasing social grants. Many people doubt that increase. It is the availability of social grants which is the key issue.

The DA is likely to reduce its percentage because of heavy competition from Freedom Front (FF) and new parties. After the elections the scenario is that the ANC and the EFF would form a government.

Alternatively, EFF – 20%, DA -15%, MK-10% and 10% of the rest add up to 55% and form a government.

However, this government would be unstable because of the many negotiations which need to take place to agree on the Presidential candidate.

In this scenario Mogoeng Mogoeng would be invited to be President as a neutral candidate. Mogoeng Mogoeng has always claimed that he would be President of South Africa.

NB: Luke Montgomery Zunga is a researcher and economist with South African Development Foundation

– CAJ News

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